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黄金周评:金价突遭惊魂大跌后再夺1300 下周或将迎来方向性突破

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:FX168
文章摘要:  本周,现货黄金整体维持1300关口附近交投:上半周温和反弹,周三最高上冲至1311.10美元/盎司,周四突然风云突变,金价大跌近20美元,最低1292.50美元/盎司,随着周五美元的再度下跌,金价重新站上1300关口,收盘在1301.13美元/盎司。消息面来看,本周英….

  本benzhou现货黄金zhengtiweichi1300关guankoufujinjiaotou:上shangbanzhouwenhefandan,周zhousanzuigaoshangchongzhi1311.10美元/盎angsi,周zhousituranfengyuntubian,金jinjiadadiejin20美meiyuan,最zuidi1292.50美meiyuan/盎angsi,随suizhuozhouwumeiyuandezaiduxiadie,金jinjiazhongxinzhanshang1300关guankou,收shoupanzai1301.13美meiyuan/盎angsi。消xiaoximianlaikan,本benzhouyingguo脱欧协议toupiao,以yijimeiguo经济数据,还huanyouzaizhongmeimaoyidengfengxianshijianzhudaoliaoquanqiushichangdezoushi

  Kedia Commodities总zongjianAjay Kedia表biaoshi,美meiyuanzouruo,外waijia英国脱欧jushiweishichangdailaidebixianxuqiutuidongliaojinjiahuisheng。只zhiyaohuangjinnengweichizhu1290美meiyuan/盎angsishangfangshuiping,那namejiunengceshi1302以yijizhihou1310美meiyuan/盎angsidezulishuiping

  针zhenduixiazhou美联储jueyiwuyishitouzizhezuiweiguanzhudezhongbangshijian,市shichangyujimeilianchuliaojiangzaicianshijiangnaixinduidaijiaxijuedingdedasuan。有youguansuobiaojihua,美meilianchukenenghuiyouyixiexindexinxi……如ruguoshifangzantingsuobiaodexinhao,打dajimeiyuanzhiji,无wuyiyehuitizhenhuangjindezoushi。此ciwaiyingguotuoouxieyijiangyinglaidisancitoupiao,且qieoumengfenghuiyejiangzhaokai。投touzizhehuanxuyaoguanzhuzhongmeimaoyifangmiandejinzhandengdeng

  当dangzhouguijinshushichangyaowenpandian

  暴baodiejin20美meiyuan!黄huangjinweiheturanzaoyujinghunyiye

  黄huangjinzaishangbanzhouwenbufandan,最zuigao1311.10美meiyuan/盎angsi,到daoliaozhousi(3月yue14日ri)风fengyuntubian,金jinjiaturanzaodaodaguimopaoshou,最zuidi1292.50美meiyuan/盎angsi,暴baodiejin20美meiyuan,创chuangjinliangzhouyilaizuidadanridiefu……

  从congxiaoximianlaikan,当dangtian,英yingguoyihuijiushifouwu协议脱欧jinxingtoupiao!3月yue13日ri,脱tuoouxieyidezaidubeifoujue,令lingshichangdanyouyingguozuizhonghuoxuanzewuxieyituoou;周zhousiyingguoyihuijujuewuxieyituoou,避bixianqingxujiangwen

  此ciwai,周zhousimeiyuanfandan,才caishijinjiabaodiedezuida“元yuanxiong”!美meiyuanchixushanggong,此ciqian,美meiyuanlianxusigejiaoyirixiadie,且qiezuidilude3月yue4日riyilaidediwei,同tongshi欧元英镑dengG10货huobiquan线xianxiacuo

  分fenxirenshizhichu,美meiyuandefandan,全quanqiugushidexiacuo,当dangshikenengshiyuanyuyizeyouguanzhongmeidebaodaosuoyingxiang。知zhiqingrenshicheng,中zhongmeijuxijiangliangguolingdaorendehuiwuzhishaoyandao4月yue

  投touxingguandian:芝zhijiageRJO Futures的degaojishichangcelueshiFrank Cholly说shuodao:“现xianzaishichangjiaoyifeichangjishuxing,当dangranmeiyuanshiyigezhongyaoyinsu。”

  Cholly表biaoshi:“当dangwomentanlunjinshu,尤youqishihuangjinshi,我womenzongyaozhuyimeiyuandezuoyong。”由youyumeiyuanshangzhang,金jinjialianxusigeyuedezhangshizuizhongzai2月yuefenjiaranerzhi

  Cholly指zhichu,假jiarumeiyuanjixuzouqiang,金jinjiakenenghuidiezhi1270美meiyuan/盎angsi

  FXStreet分fenxishiHaresh Menghani周zhousicheng,黄huangjinzouruanxianshiyoumeizhaishouyilvdafufandanyinfa,随suihou,对duimeiyuanxuqiudehuishengduihuangjinshijialiaoewaidexiaxingyali,而ersuizhuohuangjindiepo1300美meiyuanxinliguankou,则zejinyibujiajuliaokandieyali

  Forex.com分fenxishiFawad Razaqzada表biaoshi:“金jinjiachengyashiduozhongyinsugongtongzuoyongdejieguo;疲piruandezhongguojingjishujuzhengduigongyexuqiu、风fengxianpianhao、收shouyilvfandan、美meiyuanzougaoheyingguogushizouqianggouchengyali。”

  当dangshi,Fxstreet分fenxishizhichu,若ruohuangjindiepo1290美meiyuan,可kenengjinyibujiasudieshizhi1286-85美meiyuanquyu。技jishumian,黄huangjinzai1311选xuanzehuiluo,并bingzai4小xiaoshiK线xianshangchuxianmingxianyin线xian,表biaomingkongtoulilianghuanshijiaoqiang

  美meiguotongzhangshujubujiaxiazhoumeilianchujueyilaixi

  据jumeiguolaogongbu3月yue12日rigongbudezuixinbaogaocheng,美meiguo2月yueCPIyuelvzengchang0.2%;符fuheyuqi;不buguoCPI年nianlv,以yijihexinCPI月yuelv、年nianlvdubujiyuqi,令lingshichanggandaoyiwai

  据jupengbo,由youyuqichehechufangyaojiagexiadie,衡hengliangmeiguoqianzaitongzhangdeguanjianzhibiao2月yuefenchurenyiliaofanghuan,使shidemeilianchugengyouyudijianchiqiduijiaxibaochinaixindejihua

  数shujuhuanxianshi,不bubaokuoshipinhenengyuandesuoweihexinxiaofeizhejiagezhishutongbishangzhang2.1%;而erzongtiCPI同tongbishangzhang1.5%,是shi2016年nianyilaidezuixiaozhangfu。这zhelianggeshuzidudiyujingjixuejiayuqizhongzhi

  对duici,有youpingluncheng,美meiguo2月yueCPI月yuelvludesigeyuelaishoucishangzhang,但danweijinliangnianbanyilaizuixiaozhangfu。尽jinguanlaodonglishichangjinsuotuidongxinzizougao,但danyinmeiguoguoneijiquanqiujingjizengsufanghuan,通tongzhangyijiuchuyukekongfanweinei

  在zaimeiguobujiyuqidetongzhangshujuchuluzhihou,美meiyuanhuiluo,现xianhuohuangjindangtianshichixufandan,一yiduchongpo1300关guankou……

  除chuliaotongzhangshujuzhiwai,周zhouwuchuludemeiguogongyechanchu,以yijiniuyuelianchuzhizaoyezhishuyebiaoxianpiruan,无wuyiyegeiliaojinjiafandandedongli,使shidejinjiabenzhoushoupanzuizhongzhanshang1300关guankoushangfang

  下xiazhoumeilianchujianggongbu3月yuelilvjueyi,联lianchuzhuxi鲍威尔jiangzhaokaijizhehui。分fenxirenshizhichu,市shichangjiangguanzhurenheguanyulianghuakuansongzhengceruhejieshuyijiheshijieshudexinhao

  目muqianshichangyujimeilianchujiangzai2019年niandisijidujieshusuobiao

  PIMCO预yuce,美meilianchujiangzaixiazhouhuiyishangzaicianshijiangnaixinduidaijiaxijuedingdedasuan,且qiemeilianchuzuizaoxiazhou,最zuiwan6月yue,可kenengxuanbutingzhisuojianzichanfuzhaibiao,市shichangxumiqieguanzhu

  西xitaipingyang(601099)银yinxing(Westpac)称cheng,美meiyuanyouzai95-97.70区qujianpaihuailiaoyizhou,下xiazhoumeilianchugepailichangkenenghui使shimeiyuanceshigaiqujiandibu

  如ruguomeilianchudegepaijidiao,使shidemeiyuanzhendeceshiliaoqujiandibu,这zheduiyuhuangjinlaishuoshibishiyigetiandadelihao,金jinjiayouwangshanggong1350,剑jianzhi1400关guankou……

  State Street Global Advisors黄huangjintoutiaozhuguanGeorge Milling-Stanley认renwei,到daojinnianniandi,黄huangjinyouwanghuidao1350美meiyuan/盎angsishangfang

  此ciwai,Milling-Stanley还huanrenwei,市shichangsihukaishichuxianliaoduijiangxideyuqi,虽suiranzhehuanhennanqueding,但danmeiyuanyaozouqiangyejiangshibijiaonande。因yincihuangjinzaiciceshigaoweijiangzhishishijianwenti

  WGC:主zhuyaoshoubeimeidiquyingxiang,2月yuequanqiuhuangjinETF流liuliangchuxianhuiluo

  近jinri,世shijiehuangjinxiehuifabuliaoquanqiuhuangjinETF需xuqiuyijichicangliangdezuixinshuju

  2019年nian2月yue,在zailianxusigeyueludeliuruhou,全quanqiuhuangjinETF和heleisichanpinde黄金持仓zongliangjianshaoliao33吨dun,降jiangzhi2,479吨dun,相xiangdangyuliuchuzijin13亿yimeiyuan

  黄huangjinETF的dequanqiuguanlizichanguimo(AUM)月yueneixiaofushousuo2%,余yuewei1,050亿yimeiyuan。不buguodeyiyu1月yuefendeqiangjinliuru,全quanqiuhuangjinETF的dejingliuliangzaibennianrengbaochizhengzhi(+17亿yimeiyuan,+2%)。

  全quanqiuzijinliuchudezhuyaotuidonglilaizibeimei,作zuoweimeiguohuangjinETF持chiyouzhezhongzuijuliudongxingdequnti,趋qushitouzizhezhengzaihuoliliaojie

  但danlingyifangmian,我womenkandaozijinrengzaijixuliurudichengbenleihuangjinETF,我womenrenwei,其qiyuanyinzhiyizaiyuzhanluepeizhi。亚yazhouhuangjinjijinyejingliliao5%的deliuchu,而erouzhouheqitadiqudechicangzebaochibubian

  此ciwaiwomenhuanfaxian,可kenengshishouyingguotuoousuotuidong,资zijinyiranzaiyongxiangyingguodehuangjinETF,其qimuqian506吨dundechicangzongliangyichuangchulishixingao

  在zaiquanqiugushichixushangzhangdequshizhixia,黄huangjinETF出chuxianjingliuchu,本benyue,股gushizhengtishangzhang2%。全quanqiugushizaijinniantoulianggeyuezhongleijipanshengfuduyida8%,成chengweisanshinianlaizuiqiangjindekaiju

  然raner,市shichangdebuquedingxingrengjiulingrenyoulv:美meizhongliangguodemaoyizhengduan、英yingguotuooudebuquedingxing、经jingjifanghuan、以yijigaoqidegushiguzhi,均junzaikunraozhuotouzizhe

  与yucitongshi,美meilianchuyibiaoshiyaocaiqu“观guanwang”态taidu,这zhehuoxuhuiyingxiangqitayangxingshoujinhuobizhengcedesudu。美meiyuanhuobizhengcejiqizoushijiangchengweijinnian黄金价gedezhuyaotuidongyinsu,并bingyouwangzhichenghuangjintouzi

  2月yuefen,黄huangjinjiaoyiejiao2018年nianpingjunshuipingxiahua5%,日rijunchengjiao1,040亿yimeiyuan

  虽suiranCOMEX期货投资zhedeqingxuhechicangguimoshuangshuangkaishizididianhuisheng,但dansuizhuohuangjinjiagezaibenyueshangbanduanzougao,它tamenshizhongdiyulishijunzhi(备beizhu:由youyumeiguozhengfuzandingyunzuo,数shujufaburengyanchiliangzhoushijian)。

  下xiazhouzhanwang

  尽jinguanzhouwufandan,重zhonghui1300上shangfang,但danshizhousiyiwaidebaodie,使shidetouxingxincundanyou。盛shengbaoyinxing(Saxo Bank)大dazongshangpinceluezhuguanOle Hansen表biaoshi,周zhousi1%的dediefubiaomingshichangduijiageshangzhangquefaxinxin

  他tabuchongcheng,股gushidefandanzheng使shihuangjinduitouzizhedexiyinlixiajiang。标biaopu500指zhishuyitupo2800点diandexinliguankou,最zuixinjiaoyidianweiwei2828点dian,较jiaoshangzhoushangzhang3%。

  他tabiaoshi:“目muqiankanlai,似sihumeiyoubiyaocaiquzhongdabaoxiancuoshi,因yincitouzizhezhengzaihuibihuangjin,转zhuanxianggupiao。我worenwei,黄huangjintouzizheyuelaiyuegandaoshiwang,这zheduijinjiagouchengliaoyali。”

  Hansen补buchongcheng,美meilianchudebureyebulengdeqianjingyejiang使shidegushihuodemaipan,这zhejiangxianzhijinjiaderenhezhangshi

  道daomingzhengquan(TD Securities)大dazongshangpincelueshiRyan McKay表biaoshi:“我worenwei,美meilianchuzantingjiaxidegushijibenshangyijingjieshu。最zuizhong,如ruguojinjiayaozougao,我womenxuyaokandaomeiguojingjishujuzouruo。与yushijieqitadiquxiangbi,美meiguojingjirengranxiandeqiangjin,这zhe使shidemeiyuanjixuzouqiang。”

  不buguo,McKay还huanshuo,由youyuquanqiujingjixingshi,他tarenweihuangjindexiaxingkongjianyouxian。尽jinguanmeiguojingjiduiwaibuweixieyiranbaochidanxing,但dantawufakaozijibaochiqiangjin

  他tabiaoshi:“在zaijingjizengchangzhouqidezhegejieduan,放fanghuanshihenzirande。但danruguozhongguoheouzhouchuxianwenti,也yehuiyingxiangmeiguodejingjizengchang。在zaiquanqiujingjifanghuandebeijingxia,我worenweimeiyoutaiduoliyouguodukandiehuangjin。”

  与yucitongshi,Hansen表biaoshi,尽jinguanjinjiamianlinjishuxingkandiedeweixie,但danhennankandaojinjiadafuxiadie。“仍rengyouhenduochiyouhuangjindeliyou,所suoyiwoyeburenweijinjiahuidafuxiadie,”他tashuodao

  Hansen补buchongcheng,只zhiyaojinjiaweichizai1275美meiyuanzuoyoudeguanjianhuidangweizhishang,他tajiuhuijixuchangqikanzhanghuangjin

  IG市shichangfenxishiChris Beauchamp周zhouwuzaiyifenbaogaozhongbiaoshi,金jinjiachubuzuliweiyu1304美meiyuan。他tabuchongcheng,回huiluozhi1290美meiyuanjiang使shikandiehuangjindetouzizhezhongxinkongzhijinjiazoushi

  Blue Line Futures主zhuxiBill Baruch称cheng,从congjibenmianlaikan,全quanqiuhongguanjingjidebiaoxianweihuangjinshangxingtigongliaojijiadetuidong,今jinnianjinjiajiukenengchuji1400美meiyuan/盎angsidaguan

  Bill Baruch指zhichu,不buguoyanxiahuangjinzuiguanjiandezaiyu1330的deguanjianzulishuiping。目muqianzhenggehuanjingduihuangjinlihao,尤youqishiconglilvdejiaodulaikan,美meiyuanyehuixiaxing

  德deguoshangyeyinxing(Commerzbank)加jiaruliaokanduohuangjindezhenying,预yujijinniannianmojinjiajiangzhangzhi1400美meiyuan/盎angsi

  该gaixingzhichu,黄huangjinzai2014年nian、2015年nianhe2018年nianchujinianneigaodianshi,都dushizainianchudesangeyue,但danjinnianzhezhongqingkuangkenengchuxianbianhua,今jinniandegaodianhenkenenghuanmeiyouchuxian

  该gaixingrenwei,黄huangjinjinqidexiadiezhishixiuzheng,还huanyougengduoshangxingkongjian

  彭pengbo3月yue14日rigongbudezuixindiaochaxianshi,因yinyuqiyangxingzhengcejiangyouzhuyucijiduihuangjindexuqiu,黄huangjinjiaoyiyuanhefenxishikanzhanghuangjinqianjing

  在zaijieshoupengbodiaochade15位weihuangjinjiaoyiyuanjifenxishizhong,8人renkanzhang,1人renkandie,6人renkanping

  自zi2月yuezhongxunyilai,受shou访fangzheduijinjiaqianjingdekanfajibenshangcunzaifenqi

  Adrian Day Asset Management总zongcaiAdrian Day表biaoshi,随suizhuomeilianchuzantingjiaxi,欧ouzhouyangxingjiadahuobikuansonglidu,黄huangjinjiangshoudaozhicheng

  Day说shuodao,尽jinguangushifandan,但danrenmenduibixiandexuqiuyuelaiyueda。他tabingcheng,各geguoyangxingkenenghuijixuzengjiahuangjinchubei

  下xiazhouzhongyaojingjishujuheshijian

  周zhouyi(3月yue18日ri)

  日riben2月yueweijidiaoshangpinmaoyizhang

  欧ouyuanqu1月yuejidiaohoumaoyizhang

  财caijingshijian

  欧ouzhoulishihuizhuxitusikezaibailinhuijiandeguozonglimokeer

  欧ouzhouyangxingzhiweijianshouxijingjixuejiapuleite(Peter Praet)发fabiaojianghua

  周zhouer(3月yue19日ri)

  英yingguojiezhi1月yuesangeyueILO失shiyelv

  欧ouyuanqu3月yueZEW经jingjijingqizhishu

  德deguo3月yueZEW经jingjijingqizhishu

  澳aozhoulianchugongbu3月yuehuobizhengcehuiyijiyao

  周zhousan(3月yue20日ri)

  英yingguo2月yueCPI、PPI、RPI数shuju

  日ribenyangxinggongbu1月yue22-23日rihuobizhengcehuiyijiyao

  英yingguoshouxiang特蕾莎・梅disancixiangyihuitijiaotadetuoouxieyibingjinxingtoupiao

  周zhousi(3月yue21日ri)

  美meiguolianbangjijinjizhunlilv

  澳aodaliya2月yuejidiaohoushiyelv

  英yingguo2月yuejidiaohoulingshouxiaoshouyuelv

  美meiguojiezhi3月yue16日ridangzhouchuqingshiyejinrenshu

  欧ouyuanqu3月yuexiaofeizhexinxinzhishuchuzhi

  财caizhengshijian

  美meilianchugongbulilvjueyi,同tongshigongbujingjiyuqihejiaxidianzhentu

  美联储主席baoweierzhaokaixinwenfabuhui

  召zhaokaiweiqiliangtiandeoumengfenghui(3月yue21-22日ri)

  英yingguoyangxinggongbulilvjueyiyijihuiyijiyao

  周zhouwu(3月yue22日ri)

  日riben2月yuequanguoCPI年nianlv

  法faguo、德deguo、欧ouyuan3月yueMarkit制造业pmichuzhi

  加jianada1月yuelingshouxiaoshou、2月yueCPI年nianlv

  美meiguo3月yueMarkit制zhizaoyePMI初chuzhi

  美meiguo2月yuechengwuxiaoshounianhuazongshu

  召zhaokaiweiqiliangtiandeoumengfenghui(3月yue21-22日ri)。

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