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今日重头大戏!FOMC决议重磅来袭 四大爆点或引燃市场行情

2019-03-20     牛牛财经   来源:FX168
文章摘要:周三(3月20日),投资者将迎来备受关注的美联储货币政策决议,此外,美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会,考虑到此次美联储还将公布最新的经济和通胀预期以及利率点阵图,本周美联储决议受到高度关注。美联储决议料将证实,美联储仍将继续维持暂停加息立场。….

zhousan(3月yue20日ri),投touzizhejiangyinglaibeishouguanzhude美联储huobizhengcejueyi,此ciwai美联储主席鲍威尔jiangzhaokaixinwenfabuhui,考kaolvdaocicimeilianchuhuanjianggongbuzuixindejingjihetongzhangyuqiyijililvdianzhentu,本benzhoumeilianchujueyishoudaogaoduguanzhu。美meilianchujueyiliaojiangzhengshi,美meilianchurengjiangjixuweichizantingjiaxilichang。分fenxishizhichu,美meilianchuhuobizhengceshengming、点dianzhentu、鲍baoweieryanlunyijimeilianchuduisuobiaozhengcedezuixinjuedingdukenengyinfajinrishichangdexianzhubodong

beijingshijianzhousi02:00,美meiguolianbanggongkaishichangweiyuanhui(FOMC)将jianggongbulilvjueyijizhengceshengming;北beijingshijianzhousi02:30,美meilianchu(FED)主zhuxibaoweier(Jerome Powell)将jiangzhaokaixinwenfabuhui

meilianchuguanyuan1月yuedikaihuishi,将jianglianbangjijinlilvmubiaoqujianweichizai2.25%-2.5%不bubian。他tamenjiangyu3月yue19日rizhi20日rizaihuashengdunzaicijushou,多duoshujingjixuejiahetouzizheyujitamenjieshijiangzaiciweichililvbubian

shichangcanyuzhejiangmiqieguanzhu3月yueFOMC会huiyi,以yizhaoxunyouguanmeilianchuxiayibudongxiangshijiandian(和hefangxiang)的de线xiansuo

meiyinmeilin(BofAML)周zhouerfabu美联储会议qianzhanzhichu:“我womenxiangxinmeilianchuzhousanjiangzaidushifanggepaiyanlun,现xianzaidewentishiyouduoshaogepaiyuqiyijingbeishichangsuoxiaohua。目muqianyou4大daguanzhujiaodian:第diyi、政zhengceshengmingshifouduijinqijingjizengchangbiaodagengjinshendetaidu;第dier、鲍baoweierruhekandaixinzizengchanghetongzhangqingkuang;第disan、我womenrenweidianzhentuyuqijianghuixiadiao25个gejidian,这zheyiweizhuonianneihuozhihuichuxianyicijiaxishenzhigengshao;第disi、相xiangxinmeilianchujianghuixuanbujieshusuobiaojihua。”

meilianchuzhengceshengminghuifouzaidu“放fangge”?

meilianchuzai1月yuefendezhengcehuiyishangxuanzebujiaxi,并bingchengnuoduiyuweilaijucuojiangbaochinaixin,并bingguanzhujingjixingshidefazhan。美meilianchubiaoshi,对duiweilairenhelilvxingdongdujiangbaochi“耐naixin”,并binganshizichanfuzhaibiaodeshousuolujingjuyoulinghuoxing

(图tupianlaiyuan:彭pengbo、FX168财caijingwang(博boke,微weibo))

yu2018年nian12月yuezhanxiandejiaxilichangxiangbi,美meilianchuchuxianliaomingxianzhuanbian,会huihoufabiaodeshengmingzhongzuilingrenzhumudebianhuamoguoyuquxiaoliao“进jinyibuzhujianjiaxi”的decuoci,并bingqiangdiaozaiweilaidaolushanghui“保baochinaixin”。

touzizhejiangguanzhumeilianchuzaizuixindezhengceshengmingzhongshifouduijinqijingjizengchangzhanxiangengweijinshendetaidu

Roberts & Ryan利lilvzhuguanGregory Faranello表biaoshi:“我woyuqimeilianchujiangweichiwenhetaidu。”

pengbowenzhangzhichu,联lianbangjijinlilvqihuoyifanyingchumingnianchujiangxidewenhekenengxing,官guanyuanmenjianglitubimianjiujingjiqianjingshifangguoyugepaidexinhao,因yinweizhekenenghuijiaqiangjiangxiyuqi

pengbodiaochajieguoxianshi,美meilianchuliaojianghuizaijinnianwanxieshihouzaidujiaxiyicihou便biangeicilunjiaxizhouqihuashangjuhao

dianzhentujiaxiyuqishifouhuixiadiao

qunian12月yuededianzhentuxianshi,2019年nianyouliangcijiaxi。因yinci,投touzizhejiangguanzhubenzhoudelilvjueyizhongdianzhentushifouhuixiadiaojiaxiyuqi

摩根士丹利touziguanlidetouzizuhejingliJim Caron认renwei,这zheyiyuqibenzhoukenengxiaxiuzhiyici,同tongshimeilianchuguanyuanzhongshenduijiaxikenengxingdeshenshentaidu

(美meilianchudianzhentutupianlaiyuan:美meilianchu、FX168财caijingwang)

aoxinyinxing(ANZ)周zhouyifabuyanjiubaogaocheng,本benzhoumeilianchuzhengcehuiyiliaojiangxiadiaodianzhentujiaxiyuqi

aoxinyinxingfenxishibiaoshi:“鉴jianyujinqi经济数据dezhengtipiruan,我womenyuqibenzhoumeilianchuzhengcehuiyijianghuishiduxiadiao2019年niandejingjizengchangyuqiyijitongzhangyuqi。”

gaixingfenxishitongshizhichu:“我womenyejiangkandaomeilianchuxiadiaodianzhentujiaxiyuqi,毕bijing1月yuezhengcehuiyishangxuduoweiyuanyijingrenweinianneijiaxidexuqiuyijingbutaimingxian。”

dansikeyinxing(Danske)周zhouerfabukehubaogaocheng,如ruguomeilianchushifangzaijiaxiyicijiujieshujinsuozhouqidexinhao,我womenyebuhuigandaoyiwai

dansikefenxishibiaoshi:“预yujimeilianchujianghuixiadiao‘点dianzhentu’预yuqi,将jiang2019年nianjiaxiliangcideyuqidiaozhengweijinjiaxiyici,同tongshiruguomeilianchubiaoshizheyangjiujiangjieshujinsuozhouqi,我womenyebuhuigandaoyiwai。”

gaixingfenxishizhichu:“我womendejichuqingjingyuqirenweimeilianchunianneijiangjiaxiliangci,且qiejiangxuanbuzaidisijidujieshusuobiao。尽jinguanruci,我womenrenweiji使shimeilianchuwanquanpaichunianneidejiaxijihua,固gudingshouyishichangyebuhuishoudaotaidayingxiang。”

mogendatong(JPMorgan)经jingjixuejiaMichael Feroli上shangzhoufabubaogaocheng,虽suiranrengyuqimeilianchujiangzai2020年nianzaicijiaxi,原yuanxianyuqi2019年nian12月yuejiangjiaxidemogendatong,现xianzaiyujimeilianchujinnianjianganbingbudong

baogaozhichu,对duiyu3月yue20日rideFOMC会huiyi,摩mogendatongyuqidianzhentuzhongzhihuifachujinnian“不bujiaxihuojiaxiyici”的dexinhao,去qunian12月yuedeyuqishijiaxiliangci

baoweierjiangfabiaohezhongyanlun

touzizhehuanjiangguanzhumeilianchuzhuxibaoweier(Jerome Powell)在zaixinwenfabuhuishangdeyanlun

baoweierzai1月yueFOMC会huiyijieshuhoudexinwenfabuhuishangzengshuodao:“加jiaxideliyouyousuojianruo。”

meilianchuzhuxibaoweierzai3月yue10日ribochudeCBS节jiemu“60 Minutes”接jieshoucai访fangshibiaoshi,利lilvkeyijixuweichixianyoushuiping,由youcimeilianchukeyijingguanhaiwaixingshiruhefazhan

baoweierdangshishuodao:“通tongzhangweijianyoushimebianhua,我womenrenweiwomendangqiandezhengceshishiyide。”此cifanyanlunbiaoming,美meilianchudangqiandezantingxingdongqibingwumingquedeshijianjiexian

(鲍baoweiertupianlaiyuan:彭pengbo、FX168财caijingwang)

zaijuedinglilvfangxiangdewentishang,鲍baoweiershuodao:“我womenjiangguanzhuyixilieshuju。就jiuguoneieryan,我womenjiangguanzhuzengchang、劳laodonglishichangzhuangkuang、创chuangzaojiuyejihui、工gongzidengwenti。当dangran,我womenyehuikaolvtonghuopengzhang。就jiuguowaieryan,我womenjiangguanzhuhaiwaizengchangzhuangtai,尤youqishizhongguoheouzhou。我womenhuizonghekaolvsuoyouzhexieyinsuhouzaijuedingheshicaishiyigaibiandangqiandezhengce。”

dangdishijian3月yue8日riwanjian,美meilianchuzhuxibaoweierzaijialifuniyazhousitanfufabiaoyanjiangshibiaoshi,因yinweizengchangfanghuan、通tongzhangdimi,他tahetadetongshibujiyudiaozhenglilv

2月yue26日ri,美meilianchuzhuxibaoweierzaicanyiyuanyinxingweiyuanhuijiumeiguohuobizhengcehejingjiqingkuangzuozhengci。鲍baoweierdangshibiaoshi,美meilianchuzaijuedingjinyibujiaxifangmianjiangbaochi“耐naixin”,重zhongshenmeilianchuzai1月yuezuochudezhengcezhuanbian

2月yue27日ri,鲍baoweierzaizhongyiyuanjinrongfuwuweiyuanhuizuozhengcishitazhongshen,美meilianchujiangbaochinaixin,将jiangguanchajingjixingshiyanbian

meilianchushifouhuixuanbujieshusuobiaodeshijianbiao

chuliaolilvqianjingzhiwai,投touzizheyejiangguanzhumeilianchuruhepinggusuobiaozhengce。有youjingjixuejiazhichu,美meilianchu“似sihuzhunbeihao”在zai3月yuehuiyixuanbujieshusuobiaodeshijianbiao

FOMC此ciqiangongbude1月yue29日rizhi30日ridezhengcehuiyijiyaoxianshi,决juecezhe广guangfanrentongzai2019年nianjieshusuobiao,同tongshibiaoshibuquedingjinnianshifouhuizaidujiaxi

huiyijiyaoxianshi:“几jihusuoyouyuhuizhedurenwei,最zuihaochenzhuohuanbutaiwanjiuxuanbuzaijinnianwanxieshihoutingzhisuojianzichanfuzhaibiaodejihua。做zuochuzheyangdexuanbu,将jianggeiwanchengmeilianchuzichanfuzhaibiaoguimozhengchanghuadeguochengzengtianquedingxing。”美meilianchuzi2017年niandikaishisuojianguimochao4万wan亿yimeiyuandezichanfuzhaibiao

Wrightson ICAP经jingjixuejiaLou Crandall在zaibenzhoushaozaofabudeyifenbaogaozhongshuo,美meilianchu“似sihuzhunbeihao”在zai3月yuehuiyixuanbujieshusuobiaodeshijianbiao

meilianchuzhuxibaoweier2月yue27日rizaiguohuizuozhengshijiusuobiaowentichuandichuzhongyaoxinxi。他tabiaoshi,美meilianchujianghenkuaixuanbuyouguanzichanfuzhaibiaodejihua。美meilianchujijiangjiuzichanfuzhaibiaodejihuadachengyizhiyijian,这zhejiang“点dianliangtongwangjieshusuobiaodedaolu”。

baoweier3月yue8日rizaijialifuniyazhousitanfufabiaoyanjiangshibiaoshi,美meilianchujianghenkuaixuanbuqizichanfuzhaibiaojihuadexinxijie

qianniuyuelianchuzhuxidudeli(William Dudley)周zhouyijieshoupengbocai访fangcheng:“本benzhou,美meilianchuliaoxuanbujieshusuobiaodelujing,可kenenghuitouluyixieguanyuduanqiguokuquan,中zhongqipiaojuhechangqizhaiquangouchengdexinxi,但danshiruguomeilianchutandaozichanfuzhaibiaogouchengzhileigengdadewenti,以yijiwomenjiangruheshixianzheyimubiao,我wohuigandaoyiwai。”

huaqijituanfenxishibiaoshi,即ji使shimeilianchuxuanbujiangbaochiqizichanfuzhaibiaoguimowending,其qichicangzuhezhongdediyadaikuanjiangjixujianshao。预yujimeilianchujiangzai7月yuefenjieshuzhengtizichanfuzhaibiaodesuobiao

meiyuan、黄huangjinruhezou

yinshichangcaicemeilianchuzhousanjiangfabiaogepailundiao,周zhouermeiyuanzouruan,ICE美元指数zuidichuji96.29。

(ICE美meiyuanzhishuzoushitulaiyuan:Zerohedge、FX168财caijingwang)

pengbomeiyuanjiqizhishuzhouerxiadie0.1%,此ciqianyiduxiadie0.2%,触chuji2月yue28日riyilaididian

yecunzhengquankuazichancelueshiCharlie McElligott称cheng,美meiyuanzoushifanyingliao“利lilvshichangdingjiazaizhousanFOMC会huiyizhiqiansuozhanxiandefeichanggepaideyuqi。”

waihuizixunwangzhanDailyfx周zhouerzhuanwencheng,由youyu7日riyilaixiaxingqushiwanhao,ICE美meiyuanzhishudiepo96.40支zhichengdekenengxingjiaoda。若ruofuheyuqidiepo96.40,往wangxiahuojiangzhixiang96.20以yiji96.00等dengshuiping

西xitaipingyang(601099)银yinxing(Westpac)表biaoshi,本benzhoumeilianchugepailichangkenenghui使shimeiyuanzhishuceshi95-97.70区qujiandibu

meiyinmeilinfenxishibiaoshi:“我womenrenweimeiyuanruoshijianghuizaimeilianchuzhengcejueyihoudedaoyanxu,市shichangjiangmiqieguanzhumeilianchushifouyuanyirengyoutongzhangchaoguomubiaoshuiping,同tongshibucaiqurenhehuobizhengcecuoshi。我womenxiangxingepaiyanlunjianghuikuodajinqidemeiyuanmaiya,从congerdayameiyuanzhishudiexiang96附fujin,并bingbangzhuouyuan/美meiyuanduan线xianshengzhi1.15附fujin。”

Forex.com分fenxishizhuanwenzhichu,或huoxuzhousandemeilianchuhuiyijiangtigonggepailundiaodayameiyuan

pengbozhouyizhuanwencheng,多duojiajigouzhoumochujubaogao,大daduorenweimeilianchukenengquerengepaizhuanxiang。光guangdazhengquan(601788)和hehuataizhengquan(601688)报baogaojunrenwei,本bencimeilianchujiangjuedingzanbujiaxi,小xiaofuxiadiaojingjizengchangyuqihenianneiyuqijiaxicishu,并bingyoukenenggongbutiqianjieshusuobiaodejihua。这zhehuoyiweizhuomeiyuanzhishumianlingengduohuidiao

ruidianbeiousianyinxing(SEB)上shangzhousifabukehubaogaocheng,本benzhoudemeilianchuzhengcehuiyiliaonanyiduimeiyuanzoushichanshengguodayingxiang

SEB分fenxishibiaoshi:“市shichangpubianyuqimeilianchujiangzai3月yue20日ridezhengcehuiyishangweichilianbangjijinlilvzai2.25-2.50%不bubian。同tongshimeilianchudiaozhengjingjiqianjingyuqidegailvyebugao,但danwomenyiranxiangxindianzhentuyinggaihuixianshi,美meilianchunianneijiaxiliangcideyuqijianghuibianchengweichililvbubian。”

yinyuqimeilianchubenzhouhuiyiqijianjiangduihuobizhengcefachugepaixinhao,周zhouer黄金价gejixuzougao,一yiduchuji1310美meiyuan/盎angsiguankou

OANDA在zaiyifenbaogaozhongcheng,“过guoquliugeyue,随suizhuoquanqiuyangxingmingxianbiandegengjiawenhe,且qiemeiyuanchujishangxian黄金走势yizhifeichangleguan。全quanqiujingjiqianjinglingrendanyou,环huanjingduihuangjinsihufeichangyouli。”

jupengboshangzhousigongbudeyifendiaochaxianshi,因yinyuqiyangxingzhengcejiangyouzhuyucijiduihuangjindexuqiu,黄huangjinjiaoyiyuanhefenxishikanzhanghuangjinqianjing

zaijieshoupengbodiaochade15位weihuangjinjiaoyiyuanjifenxishizhong,8人renkanzhang,1人renkandie,6人renkanping。自zi2月yuezhongxunyilai,受shou访fangzheduijinjiaqianjingdekanfajibenshangcunzaifenqi

touxingjinggaofengxian

jinguanshichangpubianyuqimeilianchubenzhoujiangfabiaogepailundiao,不buguoyeyoujigoufachujinggaoshengyin

huaqibenzhoushaozaobiaoshi,即jijiangzhaokaideFOMC会huiyicunzaiyingpaifengxian

huaqiyinxingfenxishizhichu,预yujimeilianchujiangba“点dianzhentu”的dezhongzhiyuqidiaozhengweijinzai2019年nianjiaxiyici,不buguomeilianchuyeyouweichiyuqibubiandeyingpaifengxian

AMP Capital Investors的detouzizuhejingliNader Naeimi在zai美联储利率huiyiqianjiangzuoduomeiyuanduiyilanzihuobi(包baokuoriyuan,泰taizhuhenanfeilante)。

Naeimi说shuodao:“虽suiranmeilianchubuhuichiyingpailichang,且qielilvjiangweichibubian,但danduitongzhangdetaidukenengbishichangyuqidegengjiaqiangying。”

shengbaoyinxingdazongshangpinceluezhuguanOle Hansen表biaoshi黄金市场zhouershouyiyumeiyuanzouruanhe债券收益率xiajiang,因yinweishichangyujimeilianchujianghuicaiquwenhedetaidu。不buguo,他tajinggaocheng,市shichangkenengqiwangguogao

tabiaoshi:“对duibaoweierjiqitongliaojuedingcaiquhezhongxingdongdeyuqijihuyichengdingju――如ruguotamenweinengduixianchengnuo,市shichangkenenghuimianlinfengxian。”

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